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Here are some reasons why.
Joel takes a momentary respite from politics to pen a nice little bit of reporting and analysis for Macworld on this weekend's second-most important event. If this were one of our Scripps-Howard columns, I wonder which way Joel would go?
Update: I won't have time today to follow all of the iPad coverage, but I did notice Cory Doctorow's dissenting post at Boing Boing. Doctorow links to another post likening the device to "the second coming of the CD-Rom," slams Marvel's comic app (fair cop), and concludes: "If you want to live in the creative universe where anyone with a cool idea can make it and give it to you to run on your hardware, the iPad isn't for you." Now who's naive? (Via Memeorandum.)
Comments
One of the more compelling comments
I found this one at Macworld from one Jonathan Rivera most interesting:
The idea is the iPad will be better than an iPhone, about which many a commentator has heralded as the next great handheld gaming platform. Well, you could play games on a larger screen, or watch movies, or write a blog item, or any number of fascinating things on that iPad -- with the possible exception of hold a conference call, but that might depend on whether there will be a Skype-style app for the iPad that you could use on any old wi-fi network.
As I listen annoyed to the fan on this four-year-old MacBook blowing, the possibilities for the iPad seem limitless to me.
Saw one this morning
There's a small Apple-focused computer store -- not an Apple Store -- a few blocks from my house that let people come in and play with a few display models this morning. Couple of things I noticed right away:
* The fingerprint-resistant screen? Not so much. By the time I saw the thing it was smeared all over.
* It appears to play streaming video more smoothly than my brand-new HP 210 Mini Netbook.
I didn't get much more time than that. But my overall sensation was: What's the big deal?
Don't get me wrong: I think I could have that reaction AND Apple have a hit on its hands, and for one to be in every tech-literate household (including mine) in a year's time. The problem, I think, is that Apple promises revolutions ... and not everything it does can be revolutionary.
Take the netbook I'm typing on. Pretty handy little machine -- more power and capabilities, nearly, than the desktop machine I was using a decade ago. Sometime in the last couple of years, people really started buying these things up -- an informal coffee shop survey shows a near-even split between full-sized laptops and smaller netbooks -- and the industry shifted to give people what they wanted. It happened without a ton of fanfare, but the units got sold computing habits changed anyway.
When I saw the iPad this morning, I saw a machine that ... lets me do what I already do: Check mail, surf the net, read magazines and books , watch video. Unlike my HP 210, it does it in stylishly Apple fashion. I can't see it changing the way I consume media, because that's changed already. But I can see it being a fine method to live out those changes.
Someday. When I've got more regular pay coming in.
Apple "iPad" Lest We Forget: Sometimes Form
trumps Content. Especially in the new-fangled 21sty Century
iPad excitement
You've hit on what might be a weakness of the iPad: How is it really different? Or, more to the point, is it different enough? Is there really a market for something that sits somewhere in between a laptop and a netbook? That's a big gamble, and my instinct is to think that there is not enough room between the two devices to foster what Apple thinks it has — a revolutionary new device.
Yet, with a slew of positive reviews, an unexpectedly high level of enthusiasm for the product (I read somewhere that a crowd had gathered at one SF-area Apple store and a cheer went up when the doors opened and the product was brought out.), and predictions of up to 5 million sold by the end of the year, there appears to be enough room.
I'm reminded of the introduction of the iPhone, in which I read stories in the LA times while on the train about people camping out to get their hands on the first ones. Sure, we had "smart phones" already, with BlackBerry being the most prominent one. But the iPhone proved to ultimately (and quickly) completely change the market by showing that everything else in that genre of consumer electronics was woefully behind the times.
Swimming in a private pool
The iPad will definitely swim, but if you want to swim in it you have to swim in Apple's pool. Too bad we can't have the open philosophy of Google with the UI genius of Apple. The iPad will be the first successful tablet, filling the void between smart phone and netbook better than anything else, but I worry about the amount of control Apple may exert over the software side of things. It will certainly kill the Kindle. It's clearly a device designed to consume media, rather than create, which is a step in the wrong direction I think. I'll probably wait at least a year, if I get one at all.
Private swimming
I hear what you're saying, K. But for the life of me, I can't figure out why so many people bitch that Apple tends to operate — at least initially — in its own "walled garden" (or private pool, in your analogy). Or to have exclusive agreements with companies like AT&T. Congress has even held hearings suggesting that it should outlaw such agreements between hand-set makers and cellular providers. Which is absurd. There is no inherent right to, say, have an iPhone with a Sprint contract.
If Apple wants to make so that to have an iPhone, you have to go with AT&T, that's their business. Consumers had the right to say "OK" or "buzz off." And it obviously didn't stop the iPhone from becoming a smashing success — something hardly guaranteed at the outset.
Why do you "worry about the amount of control Apple may exert over the software side of things"? How is Apple wronging you by choosing to exert such control? I'd like Carl's Jr. to provide their pastrami-topped 1/2-pound cheeseburger all year long. Alas, I am continually disappointed. ... Where was I? ... Oh, yeah. The iPad's "private pool."
There are those on the tech left (I do battle with them daily, and they can be fairly described as an impressive swarm of locusts) who aren't simply dissatisfied with Apple's "private pool" practices, but look to outlaw them. They want to mandate that all devices accept all operating systems, applications and service providers. That's nuts. I'm not saying you want such laws, K. I'm just letting you in on what's happening out there from people who take such arguments to the extreme.
If Google wants to produce an "open-access" media reader, they should make one. In fact, I'd wager we'll see one in a few years — just like Google funded the development of the Android to make an iPhone-like device that wasn't so snobby. But, as if you couldn't tell, I have little patience for Apple sniping. Apple is a wildly successful private company, and they can make whatever choices they want in the production and consumption of their products. The market will decide if they've made a mistake.
(A fuller version of this reply can be read at The Freedom Pub. Feel free to leave comments there, too, if you get the urge.)
Axe grinding
I didn't notice K. even elliptically suggesting there ought to be anything other than a market-based solution to the "walled garden" issue, Z. Expressing discontent with Apple's "control issues" is a critical part of market correction - it informs both the buyer and other sellers of market manipulation and allows them to make an informed decision how to respond.
Most of the complaints that I have heard about Apple's desire to manhandle the consumer come not from statists, but from free-marketers - real libertarians who resist corporations' hijacking of intellectual property law and manipulation of ignorant lawmakers to shove competitors out of a truly free marketplace. For all that I disagree with in Cory Doctorow's piece (which Ben linked above) I agree that Apple pays lip-service to hating DRM while executing a business model that is anchored in DRM's property rights distortion field. I'm surprised that you would defend this behavior.
Competition eventually crushes DRM. We saw it in the MP3 marketplace, and eventually we'll probably see more of it in other content areas. But make no mistake: Apple doesn't want a free market. They want control.
RE: Axe grinding
You're a member of The Freedom Pub, Robb — and thanks for that!. If you don't put your reply in the comment box soon, I'll be forced to do it for you. ;-)
Anyway, did you miss this part of my reply?
I was not accusing K of anything beyond what he was plainly arguing. I was merely informing him the lengths others take his initial impulse, and then addressing that.
I am not defending this behavior. I am defending Apple's right to engage in such behavior.
Yes. We did see the crushing of DRM in the MP3 marketplace. And that's a good thing ... because the market crushed it.
What Apple wants, Apple might or might not get. All Apple deserves in a free-market system is a regulatory regime that does not stifle its ability to do what it wants in an effort to get what it wants. The market will be the arbiter.
And you're right. Apple doesn't want a free market system. But neither does Google and Microsoft and Intel and Skype, etc. They are all constantly running to government to protect themselves from the free market. They want to rig the market to favor their business plans by convincing the government to punish by law the business strategies of their rivals.
I wholeheartedly reject all such efforts.
Re: Axe Grinding
put your reply in the comment box
Done
Anyway, did you miss this part of my reply?
No, I didn't, but the substance of your reply is based on the assumption that any complaint against the behavior of a market player is an argument for state control. The disclaimer doesn't change the fact that you're arguing against something that K. didn't actually say. In fact, it's kind of worse, because it becomes clear your argument is against a straw man.
I am defending Apple's right to engage in such behavior.
But you're really not - you're elevating something that is legally permissible to something that should not be objected to. This is similar to our net neutrality discussion - you criticize those who would have the government regulate service providers, while placing no blame whatsoever on the market-stifling and corporatist behavior of those providers. By defending Apple's behavior, you go beyond defending their right to act and sound more like you're defending the actions as upright and noble.
If the marketplace is not encouraged to heap scorn and ridicule upon questionable business practices, then people are going to be that much more likely to seek resolution from the state. And that is much, much worse.
RE: Axe grinding
Sheesh. OK. I built a "straw man," but you'd have to admit, Robb, it was one I admitted building. And it's not illegitimate. Forgive me to taking K's comment to comment on a larger issue while taking pains to absolve him from such points coming out of his keyboard. Perhaps that was lost in typing translation. Let me make it official (if I didn't already do to in two comments): As far as I can tell from the literal text of Khabalox's comments, he does not advocate government management of technological innovation.
I didn't say all complaints about market players is an argument for state control. I said — again — that some people (and these are organized groups that have the ear of policy-makers in Washington) do argue that. Thought it was worth mentioning in the discussion because not every monkey is in the trenches.
We're on the same side, Robb. I think ...
See the rest of my reply to Robb here.
RE Private Swimming
Robb has it pretty spot on, I think. I'm not suggesting that Congress, the FTC/FCC or the DoJ come in and force Apple to allow any app be sold at their market. There are enough large competitors in this market (e.g. Google, Microsoft, HP, Motorola, etc.) that the free market is very likely able to make the appropriate adjustments (which may not lie in total congruence with my opinion of how things should be). If that was not the case - if only Apple made netbooks, cell phones and tablets, and they insisted that only they get to decide which apps you can run and which network you can use - then one could perhaps make a case for government intervention.
I have three concerns with Apple's business model for the iPhone and iPad. First, by exerting the amount of control they are, they will end up slowing down real innovation in this area (mobile computing). Second, Apple is so good at making sexy devices, people are going to be willing to sacrifice their freedom to get the next "it" thing from Apple, and they will do it in such numbers as to hurt (my opinion/standard of hurt of course) the market. To put it another way, in a free market, Soma would be wildly successful, but hardly optimal. And third, by creating a device that is primarily a consumer and not a creator, they are at best inhibiting and at worst dumbing down the user base.
I just listened to a TWiG podcast from several weeks ago in which they discussed the debut of Google Buzz. They mentioned that Buzz is built entirely (or almost entirely?) upon open standards, such as PubSubHubbub and OAuth. This means that many different sites, be they small blogs or multi-users destinations such as Twitter or Facebook, can all share the same feed(s) between one another (as long as they all embrace the open standard[s]). The success of the internet is based on this type of behavior (e.g. the adoption of http and smtp). Proprietary systems fail (AO-who?). For social networking to truly be a revolution, I need to be able to network with everyone, not just those people on Twitter. Apple's control of the iPad/iPhone experience is in some ways very similar to the walled gardens of the Internet.
RE: Private swimming
Why? Seriously. Government intervention would not be necessary because in a free market system it is not possible for Apple to be the only company that makes "cell phones and tablets" etc. And even if, in some imaginary world, none of these things existed until one day all that great technology is released to the public, many companies would quickly move in to fill this market-based demand for such products. It's been that way in every industry. (For starters, the automobile industry.) Consumer tech is no different. In fact, the scenario you suggest is only possible if government allows/supports monopolies — which is what happened, ironically, in the communications industry until Ma Bell was broken up in the 1980s.
"Control" today is worthless tomorrow. Again, look at Apple's iPhone. It's only been out a few years, and it's got competition out the wazzu. One could argue that Apple's "control" in it's vision of a smart phone birthed even more innovations.
This is an example of why we disagree so much, K. You seem to see consumers as victims of the market instead of drivers. They "sacrifice their freedom" by purchasing Apple's stuff. Hogwash. They freely make a choice to purchase a product that you seem to think doesn't include enough freedom of applications for them. Thing is, when Apple fans start complaining about the limited ways they can utilize the device, Apple has two choices — continue to piss those customers off, or give those customers what they want. Apple, even as stubborn as it is, tends to chose the latter. Meanwhile, other companies are free to produce other "sexy" items to grab consumers' ever-wandering eye. That's how the market works. No one is hurt.
So what. If the market is there for devices that are not "dumbing down the user base" — and producing products that are "dumb" is a risky business strategy, if you ask me — it will be filled by others, and even Apple once the market tells them to get wise.
There are two choices for how technology will be presented to us. Either companies have the liberty to meet what they think are the desires of consumers participating in a free market, or the details of those products are managed by a centralized group of people who — in their infinite, yet unearned and uniformed wisdom — will determine what those products are and how they operate.
Again, I am not proposing that you, Khabalox, propose government micromanaging of the technology market. Feel free to register your dissatisfaction with the iPad by not buying one. Even send a letter to Apple saying you'd buy one if only they'd do A, B, or C. But, I gotta tell ya. From a guy on the front lines of these conflicts, there is a real battle going on as I described in the previous paragraph. And if those who insist that government dictate how new products are designed win, we'll all be losers.
RE RE: Private swimming
Do you really want to debate an exceptionally hypothetical situation that has little relation to reality? Are you that bored? Well, OK. To put it as briefly as possible (because I don't think this discussion will be very fruitful), in a world where Apple (or anyone else) is the sole manufacturer of mobile computing devices, they are monopolists. And if they use that monopoly to impose draconian rules which inhibit competition then the government should intervene to protect the consumer (and the larger market - i.e. other corporations - for that matter).
I'm not sure control is "worthless tomorrow." The iPhone was barely outsold by the Droid in their respectively first 74 days of release. When you stop to consider that Verizon has many more subscribers than AT&T (89 million vs 63 million), you see that the iPhone's penetration was almost 34% greater (1.58% versus 1.18%). And the iPhone is enjoying strong sales growth as more people get comfortable with the idea of smart(er) phones and expensive data plans. Undoubtedly the iPhone played a big role in making consumers comfortable with and/or desirous of smart phones. But the fact remains that iPhone remains arguably the most popular. Apple's "control" is worth a lot to them (and AT&T).
I guess I'm not making myself clear. Or perhaps you are conflating my opinions on things like health care with consumer electronics. Your assumption that I see consumers as victims (because I used the word sacrifice?) is erroneous. They are making a sacrifice, but one of their own free will. My concern is that by doing so, they will drive the market in a direction that is detrimental to mobile computing in general. I'm not extremely concerned, however, because there is a lot of strong competition, and there are a lot of people who are rightly bringing up the issue of control and discussing it's ramifications. In the end, I don't think Apple's model will prove to be disastrous to the larger market or the web in general.
Producing "dumb" products is not risky, historically, if you understand what I mean by "dumb." The television is probably the best example of this type of product. Scores of companies have made fortunes producing them, and despite the rise of the web, I think TVs will be around for a while to come.
But again, I think you are misunderstanding me here on the philosophical level. I'm saying that the iPad is not a good device because it is a step backward (toward the TV in fact) away from a truly interactive web. I'm not saying we should outlaw it, or that the government should force Apple to include a camera, a USB port, or soft-core porn apps, or even the Google Voice app. I'm just saying the iPad has serious flaws, and I hope it is not strong enough in the market to drag us back to the mid 1990s.
This, I think, sums up the crux of my problem discussing things with you. You see the world in black and white. Either we have total market freedom, or there is one small cadre of stupid people making decisions for everything and everyone. That fantasy is absurd. The free-market ideal hasn't ever existed (and I'm sure you would say, "for shame") and your Centrally Planned Nightmare didn't even play out that way in the Soviet Union. There, very obviously, is a huge middle ground.
I'm not saying that a small group of individuals should decide how the Apple and the iPad should behave. I'm saying that I think they made some bad decisions, and I hope the their competitors do well enough that we aren't irrecoverably hurt by Apple's strategy (and like I said, I think they will).
You keep saying this, but the tone of your posts imply otherwise. *shrug* Perhaps we should have a beer (summit) before you move so we can work on this communication problem. :P
I did want to address this point you made to Robb.
I disagree that Google (and maybe Skype, but I'm not as familiar with them) doesn't want a free-market system, but perhaps we are thinking of slightly different things. Google wants a better, faster, more open, more indexed internet. The more people use the web, the more money they make. And if users are able to use the web more efficiently (i.e. find what they are looking for faster and more easily) then they stand to make even more money (with more efficient advertisements). Google wants you identify what you are looking for, and put an ad for a company that can deliver it in front of you. They have (correctly in my opinion) decided that the best way to do that is to encourage openness. Conversely, Apple wants to deliver pre-packaged content to you in a very controlled fashion. The have made a (mostly winning) bet that consumers will appreciate the stability that comes with that control. To that end (control), Apple wants to restrict the market much much more than Google does. In fact, I can't think of a good example of an action Google has taken that does work against free markets.
RE: RE: RE: Private Swimming
1. We definitely have to have a beer before I move. We can start with a friendly handshake and talk about music we both like. A GREAT start.
2. I think you have only ratified, not refuted, my main points — better discussed over a beer (or several).
3. I look forward to the meeting.
Cheers!
Jim
Where
Where you moving to? Got a private island picked out?
RE Beer and other stuff
Damn, you called my bluff. :D We should invite Ben so that we have a moderator in case the discussion turns away from music.
RE #2: I wasn't trying to refute your points. I think you were being a little to proactive in your defense of the free market. Apple is behaving in a manner which I (and a lot of others) think is detrimental to the Internet and the multilateral communication that is it's strongest asset. But, like I said, I don't think this situation (i.e. iPad/iPhone) needs government intervention/regulation.
The net neutrality issue on the other hand..... Too bad about that court decision. I guess we'll just have to pass a law giving the FCC the proper authority. And since I brought it up, and you (Jim) likely know, what exactly is Comcast allowed to do? Does it just pertain to one application (BitTorrent)? Or can they degrade the bandwidth for any application you are using? Does this mean that an ISP can slow down your connection if you are using Chrome instead of IE? Or if you are playing a first person shooter game?
IANAL (As They Say)
I am not a lawyer, of course, but it seems to me that this decision says only that the FCC isn't allowed to tell Comcast what it can and cannot do in this instance. Which leaves Comcast able to do whatever it wants with its wires and the signals going over them. In theory this means Comcast can treat incoming and outgoing network traffic any way it wants -- throttling or entirely disallowing network packets from certain protocols, throttling or disallowing network packets destined for certain sites, giving preferential treatment to network packets originating at certain sites. Whatever Comcast wants to do. In practice, opponents of net neutrality would say, Comcast is beholden to its customers and therefore will pretty much maintain an open network, although they might dial down the traffic for peer-to-peer protocols so they don't swamp subscribers trying to use other services.
I don't know how much you know about networking, K, or about this particular issue. I'm not a lawyer and I'm not an expert, but I have some technical experience with networking, so I can explain it in more detail if you'd like.
Networking and FCC vs. Comcast
I took one Intro to Networking class, so I have a basic idea of the 7 layer model, protocols, etc. (I'm more of a software guy - a little coding and report writing.) I don't know the technical details of how they discriminate between a BitTorrent packet versus, say a http packet (header info I guess - however the receiving host knows how to decode the packet the ISP can pick out as well), or if they can discriminate between two packets adhering to the same protocol but transmitted by different clients/applications. I would definitely be interested in learning more.
I did read some more about the decision after making my post, including the Susan Crawford post Zaius linked to on Twitter. My non-lawyer understanding is pretty much the same as you - the statute cited by the FCC as giving them the authority over broadband does not. But it seems like they might be able to re-argue their case. Here is Crawford's "narrow" implication of the ruling.
Knowledge of Networking
Sounds like you know everything you need to know to understand net neutrality and probably about as much as I do. There are ways to spoof packet headers of course.
I don't think most people are really all that worried about throttling p2p connections, although there are, of course, unsettling free speech issues around that. (Not all p2p is illegal copyright infringement.) What they're worried about is when or if Comcast decides to slow or stop traffic from, for example, Verizon servers. Or gives preferential access to Comcast's sites, or sites which pay Comcast a fee.
That's really the whole argument, whether something like that would happen, and whether it would be bad if it did.
RE: Knowledge of Networking
It's late, and I don't have the energy to get into all these points. Go to my blog at The Freedom Pub for slightly more detail. However ...
1. Yes. Ben should moderate a meeting between me and K. He knows much martial arts, and can keep proper order.
2. Crawford was correct (and intellectually honest, which was somewhat of a surprise to me). The Court said the FCC has no authority to regulate the Internet in the manner it assumes (under Title I). It has to either get explicit authority from Congress or (the fall-back plan that is coming, but will be similarly challenged in court), try to cram broadband into the ill-fitting Title II structure by simply reclassifying broadband by a vote of the commission.
3. Yes, the decision basically said that Comcast can do what it wants. I maintain that market pressures strongly discourage it from harming consumers. Proof? Comcast stopped throttling bitTorrent file exchanges months before the FCC got its boots on. Why? Market pressure.
Later, guys.
Dr. Z
I Don't Get It
I really don't understand the appeal of the iPad. I honestly don't get it. I don't see what it does at all. All I see is what it doesn't: No keyboard, no access to the innards. I can't believe what Doctorow wrote is true: You can't even change the battery yourself? I get annoyed when a device requires a screwdriver to get at the batteries!
But then I don't understand the appeal of the iPhone, either, or of any other Apple product. Aside from "It's real purty!" But what do I care how my devices look?
My family owns three Apple products, all iPods. One iPod Shuffle and two Nanos. I use one of the Nanos pretty regularly when I take the bus and subway out to my studio in Brooklyn. I was happy using my cell phone as an mp3 player but it tends to run out of batteries if I run it all day so I steal my son's Nano.
I am constantly irritated by its controls, which are dictated by its prettiness. Would it have killed Apple to put a fucking volume control on the thing? God forbid the volume's cranked and a loud song comes on and when I rush to drop the volume before my ears start bleeding accidentally brush against the touch wheel, thus taking it out of the context where I can change the volume. By the time I've worked it back so I can do anything with it, I'm deaf.
I don't know. I see the Kindle's selling well and the iPad flew off the shelves and I just don't get it. I must be old. Old and poor.
Hang On
I spoke too soon. Laura Miller at Salon has a piece explaining what the iPad is good for: Doing one thing at a time.
Uh huh. That's why I'm still using a 286 running the world's oldest copy of Word for my word processing. Modern word processors make it too easy -- you type a key and the letter appears instantly! Meanwhile if it takes a moment for the letter to show up, you're given time to think. Do I really mean that letter? Maybe I'd rather use an X.... Also, all the "out of memory" errors and crashes make me appreciate it so much more when I get to save a finished document!
Duh.
Multitasking
The lack of multitasking doesn't bother me too much because there doesn't seem to be much you can do with it that would require multitasking. Multitasking on an iPad would be like a trailer hitch on a Rose Parade float.
MG
More like a trailer hitch on an MG Triumph, another rinky-dink device only marginally capable of doing anything useful but popular for its looks.
RE MG Or How To Over Deconstruct an Analogy
Nah... I'm sticking with a Rose Parade float. An iPad probably has the guts to actually multitask, and the float could probably tow a lot more than an MG. Also, the Rose Parade float has a much wider appeal among people who don't really know anything about driving.
Rose MG
The Rose Parade float is a good one, too. As I was constructing my own I thought about the merits of yours. A parade float is pretty and useless, like the iPad. And, possibly like the iPad, deep underneath is something that could probably be useful -- like a pickup truck -- if only someone would tear apart all the frilly crap.
On the other hand, the A4 processor doesn't sound all that awesome. I mean, technically, maybe it is -- low power consumption, low heat and all -- but it's not, like, superpowerful or anything.
It is, however, a new Apple processor. Which is interesting, since Apple switched its desktops to Intel a few years back. Getting back into the processor wars? Could get interesting....
Android vs iPhone OS
Looks like Apple is losing ground fast in the mobile OS wars.
http://gizmodo.com/5504622/how-the-iphone-could-end-up-in-second-place