Registered? Please log in below.
New? Please register.
Here are some reasons why.
Republican Scott Brown has won the special election in Massachusetts to fill the seat formerly held by Ted Kennedy. Brown -- who, contrary to the opinion of certain execrable MSNBC talk show hosts, is no rabid right-winger -- serves two purposes, and two purposes only: He stops the Obama-Reid-Pelosi health care catastrophe and he blocks the Waxman-Markey cap-and-tax nightmare.
Let us dispense with a couple of myths about Senator-elect Brown. He was not the Tea Party candidate. Yes, Tea Party organizations supported him to the tune of around $300,000. But the U.S. Chamber of Commerce spent more. To argue that Brown is the first Tea Party "victory" is to overestimate the fractious and disparate Tea Party movement's influence.
Scott Brown is not a conservative. Do not confuse his appeal to conservatives as being properly conservative. He's a Republican. Worse, he is a Massachusetts Republican, meaning he's part of an embattled brood with which just over one-in-10 Commonwealth voters identifies. Sure, he might qualify as conservative for the Massachusetts electorate. But do not think for a minute that Brown is another Jim DeMint or Jon Kyl.
Forget the stupid, calumnious campaign attacks -- none of that stuff should be taken as factual anyway. Brown voted for MassCare and he supports some form of cap-and-trade, just not the Waxman-Markey bill. He's generally pro-choice, but opposes late-term abortions. In most states, he's a moderate or perhaps even a liberal.
I predict with metaphysical certitude that many of the people who supported Brown's campaign and cheered him Tuesday night will be denouncing him as a RINO by Labor Day. But as long as he blocks the two worst elements of the Obama agenda, as our own Poochucker put it so beautifully, "he can be as RINO as he wants to be for all anyone cares."
The question then becomes what Brown's victory means for Republicans this year. Knowing the GOP, the party bosses will completely misinterpret the results and continue to confuse mere opposition with advancing an agenda of their own. Republicans do opposition exceptionally well. After all, they've had so much practice at it. Opposition might even propel Republicans back into the majority. But this is a populist moment. Shrewd Democrats are as likely to exploit the public's mood as Republicans. It would be foolish for Republicans to assume that just because voters oppose Obama's more hubristic policy initiatives, they therefore support Republicans and their ideas. The problem is, nobody knows what the hell those ideas are.
Comments
This is a populist moment
Which, by all indications, means the Dems will try to turn even harder to the left, bashing banks and insurance companies. Huge mistake. And downright hypocritical, since Tim Geithner is Wall Street Insider personified, not that consistency has been a hallmark of any major political party.
Any attempt to jam through the health care bill? The GOP takes the House. Mark it up. And the Dems can figure on losing Colorado, Nevada, Arkansas, Indiana, maybe more in the Senate.
I see the results from Va., NJ, and Mass., as Ross Perot's revenge. It's a revolt against incompetence and profligacy, and somewhat against hyperpartisanship. It's not ideological in the sense that people are calling for principled, free-market responses, but such policies, articulated well, should have at least an audience now that has not been there for the past 18 months.
A big question is whether Obama has the capacity of pivoting, as Clinton did, and trying to seize the center. I'm not sure about that. In part, that's because (wait for it) unlike Clinton, Obama's never run anything bigger than a congressional office. He's never dealt with recalcitrant lawmakers or ticked-off employees or any management crisis. Maybe he's not teachable.
Should Republicans retake one or both houses of Congress, they'll have a short leash. And my guess is, the wiser Democrats are hoping to weather the storm. Do their best to hang on to the House, keep Senate losses at five seats or less, and hunker down for 2012, when they'll get the Massachusetts seat back and the economy will have rebounded.
It will have rebounded by then, right?
I include only this brief snippet ...
... because I don't want any of you to catch the dumb.
Ben the Kill-joy
Can't let the good times sink in for even 24 hours before counseling everyone to temper their expectations and excitement, eh, Eeyore? ;-)
I'm with Poohchucker. As long as he stops the destruction of the health care system (which he's already done), Brown can be to the left of his fellow New England RINO senators Snowe and Collins on just about every other issue for all I care. I suspect, however, that he'll be at least slightly to the right of them. He'll be another John McCain, though to the right of him on the war on terror (Brown stated often and loudly on the campaign trail that waterboarding is not torture, and the way to fight terrorism is with bombs, not subpoenas).
Brown advocated JFK-type supply-side tax cuts, and appears to be somewhat of a budget hawk. Not to shabby. And while he's generally pro-choice, he'd vote to stop partial-birth abortion.
Again, I'm sure if Brown survives past 2012 when he has to run again, there will be times I'm unhappy with him for not being conservative enough. But I'd be willing to bet right now that I wouldn't be as frustrated with his votes and positions as I had long been of "Republicans" Chuck Hagel and Arlen Specter.
And Rick is right. This is a populist moment, not necessarily a Republican moment. But it's one that the Tea Party movement deserves credit for helping to create. It would be a mistake to dismiss the connection because only $300,000 came from the Tea Party movement, which has always been loosely organized and is barely a year old. For one, that money (while relatively modest, but hardly two-bits) came in the last few weeks of the campaign, when it could do the most good. Second, Brown raised millions in the last weeks from individuals energized by the Tea Party movement, so he actually got a lot more than just $300k from Tea Partiers. In short, I think you could argue that it was the energy of the Tea Party movement that helped blow wind into his sails in the final month of the campaign.
The proper analysis of the political ramifications of what happened yesterday is said best by liberal Democrats like Barney Frank and Anthony Weiner who now realize that ObamaCare (and much of his agenda) is DOA. They will be scrambling to, in essence, start over. And move more humbly. Even they realize that the gamble/misread by Rahm Emanuel to exploit a national "crisis" to sprint to the left as quickly as possible was a terrible mistake. Frank even now belatedly laments that if his party had tried to paper even a few fig leaves of Republican support to Obama's agenda, they'd have most of what they wanted with the rest of the agenda possible in future years. Instead, the Democrats are like Wile E. Coyote. They ran off the edge of the cliff a few frames ago ... but only now realize that they are standing on air.
We have witnessed one of the greatest political choke-jobs in our lifetimes. The Democrats had a president with near historic popularity. They had a super majority in Congress. They had a press corps promoting Obama's agenda as if they were on the payroll. They had Republicans (and not just moderate ones) saying 10 months ago that it is probably time for the GOP to find common ground with the winners and participate in the "realignment" of America's new political reality. Yet the Democrats, by choice, did not make any real attempts to peel off the very peel-off-able moderate/liberal Republicans, especially in the Senate. No. Obama's response was, "We won." And he helped Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid not only ignore the opposition party, but treat them with outright contempt. And as the months wore on, "the people" interpreted that contempt as directed toward them, as well. Despite poll numbers showing ever-growing opposition to ObamaCare and cap-and-trade, the Democratic political establishment pushed ahead and declared: "You may not like this stuff, but that's because you're not smart enough to figure out that our policies are good for you. We'll just pass it anyway. You'll thank us later."
The Democrats are now paying for their hubris. When even a majority of Democrats in Massachusetts oppose ObamaCare and express that view by voting for Scott Brown ... well, like I said: That message even gets through to the likes of Barney Frank.
One idea so brilliant the GOP would never do it
Have Brown deliver the Republican response to the State of the Union. At a Tea Party. In Fenway Park.
What Can Brown Do For You?
Like Leiberman, I predict Brown will confound hard-liners on both sides. And I wouldn't predict that universal healthcare and Cap'n Trade are dead, either. And I certainly wouldn't -- if I were a Democratic Senator, especially -- be whining over a 59-41 advantage.
But Brown will come in with a certain amount of leverage; as a centrist GOP (as noted above, that would be the best case scenario for the right) from Massachusetts, he will most likely play to the middle.
If I were his Chief of Staff, I would set up appts immediately with McCain and Lieberman, and any other Senators reviled by their "bases."
If we get healthcare, hopefully this election will moderate the version adopted. That is the glory of this republic, anyways.
Cap'n Trade? I can only hope it will be stalled, but chiefly because it is dishonest and ineffective policy, a double-whammy.
Here's hoping Brown takes advantage of his catching the "lightning in a bottle." May he be the Ryan Seacrest of the Senate! ;o/
.
"Don't confuse political savvy with competence or principles." -- RobbL, 2009
I suppose the Dems could strong-arm ObamaCare through Congress
... if they're willing to lose the House and maybe the Senate, too. The current iterations get support in the upper 30s. You really do have to be dumb as a box of rocks to believe you can shove that down the electorate's throats and not pay a price.