If this is indeed a tough year for Democrats, pay close attention to races at the state level. If incumbents holding relatively safe seats start retiring (several in North Carolina are), attract serious GOP opponents rather than placeholders, or -- perhaps most importantly -- inspire primary challengers, they we could see a big turnover in state legislatures.

This is an important campaign because next year's legislatures will draw congressional and state legislative districts. That's typically not the sort of issue to rally occasional voters, but it is a big deal.

Candidate filing starts here in a few weeks. It'll be fun to watch.