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Here are some reasons why.
Monkey friend and frequent comment contributor Rick — otherwise known as Deregulator — sent me an email asking why I haven't been all over the collapse of the global warming fraud. Thanksgiving week explains most of it. And there is also the fact that there is just so much fraud to expose and comment upon.
Since the blogosphere is already well down the field on the Climategate scandal — I like the term "Climaquiddick" — I'll contribute here by sharing what a columnist from the Toronto Sun found when trolling through the incriminating emails that expose the global fraud meant to reorder the societies of the Western world. Actually, the columnist didn't find it. The nerd the global warming statists hired to analyze the data found it.
From a column aptly titled "Botch After Botch After Botch," the nerd put in charge of trying to make sense of the data upon which the United Nations (and our Congress) would impose punitive taxes and force us to live more "green" ... well, could make no sense of it. This matters because this guy is a programmer, and he could make no sense of the program that crunched the "science is settled" data:
"But what are all those monthly files? DON'T KNOW, UNDOCUMENTED. Wherever I look, there are data files, no info about what they are other than their names. And that's useless ..." (Page 17)
"It's botch after botch after botch." (18)
"This surely is the worst project I've ever attempted. Eeeek." (31)
"Oh, GOD, if I could start this project again and actually argue the case for junking the inherited program suite." (37)
"... this should all have been rewritten from scratch a year ago!" (45)
"Am I the first person to attempt to get the CRU databases in working order?!!" (47)
"As far as I can see, this renders the (weather) station counts totally meaningless." (57)
"COBAR AIRPORT AWS (data from an Australian weather station) cannot start in 1962, it didn't open until 1993!" (71)
"What the hell is supposed to happen here? Oh yeah -- there is no 'supposed,' I can make it up. So I have : - )" (98)
"You can't imagine what this has cost me -- to actually allow the operator to assign false WMO (World Meteorological Organization) codes!! But what else is there in such situations? Especially when dealing with a 'Master' database of dubious provenance ..." (98)
"So with a somewhat cynical shrug, I added the nuclear option -- to match every WMO possible, and turn the rest into new stations ... In other words what CRU usually do. It will allow bad databases to pass unnoticed, and good databases to become bad ..." (98-9)
"OH F--- THIS. It's Sunday evening, I've worked all weekend, and just when I thought it was done, I'm hitting yet another problem that's based on the hopeless state of our databases." (241).
- "This whole project is SUCH A MESS ..." (266)
Looking at this bit of evidence, Toronto Star columnist Lorrie Goldstein asks:
And based on stuff like this, politicians are going to blow up our economy and lower our standard of living to "fix" the climate?
Are they insane?
Yes. But are we?
Comments
Reminds Me of Summer School Geometry
I'll say it one more (or perhaps another hundred) time(s): the reason I never "bought" into the Global Weather Change Emergency Everyone-to-get-from-Street scenario is primarily simple.
There was never any "pros and cons" list. To put it another way, everyone promoting the Crisis presents GW as a 100% Bad Thing Certainty, with no discussion of possible positive outcomes.
I once taught summer school geometry to a pack of lazy kids who thought (wrongly) that I was there to grab a paycheck and pass them just for going to school in summer. Come the final exam, and I am grading them and I notice: about 5 of the students have answers that are identical, DOWN TO THE SHAPE OF THE ARROWS INDICATING PARTS OF TRIANGLES, etc. And, all of their answers are correct! Glory be!
I fail all 5 for cheating. And everyone wonders how I figured it out.
Turns out someone had pilfered the school's teacher textbook and circulated the answer sections. Go figure.
All I thought was: bad cheaters, like bad cheaters everywhere (e.g., Las Vegas), try and win every point all the time.
I just never thought I'd be thinking that while watching people involved in federal/world governance. Go figure.
OTOH, if a list of pros & cons every *does* emerge, I reserve the right to ... oh f- it.
.
"Don't confuse political savvy with competence or principles." -- RobbL, 2009
CRU Data are Articles of Faith
"Global warming" is political science, if it is a science at all. At best it is a theory unsupported by facts. At worst, it is a new age religion that is quick to accuse those with doubts as heretics.
Two things
I don't have the time or the energy to delve into this mess too deeply, but I didn't want to make two quick points.
1) I find it really funny that the hypertext "fact" leads to the UK Telegraph site. (I thought we distrusted the MSM here?)
2) I don't think a programmer complaining about what sounds like atrocious database design is the best evidence to present in the argument against the veracity of the CC's scientists results/methods. Did Jim choose this quote because other blogs are presenting the more damning evidence? These snippets could have come from any DBA taking over a legacy system and trying to migrate it to newer technology. I myself have uttered some of those phrases myself when I migrated our data from Quickbooks to our new ERP database. Giving what I've observed in the business world, I can only have nightmares imagining what must exist in the academic world with regards to computer systems and databases (outside of CS and EE departments of course).
Amen
I was a computer programmer and database guy up until very recently and I concur, K. These messages don't say squat about the underlying data. The data could be the American Presidents, their Vice Presidents, and the dates they served. It doesn't make a difference.
As a programmer I almost always worked with no knowledge whatsoever of the underlying data -- what it was for, what it represented, why anyone cared. It was all unnecessary for my job. I was given a specification and I wrote to it: "Move these records from here to there, removing duplicates", or something like that. The data doesn't matter.
And I've written very similar things about any larger project inherited from someone else. Invariably other programmers are idiots. (Of course this generalizes to include me as an idiot also. I understand.)
Whether these leaked e-mail messages really do debunk global warming -- and I'm not saying they do or don't -- these particular ones do not.
sniff
I love the fresh smell of watergate in the morning.
Underlying data ...
What underlying data? Turns out a lot of it was destroyed. And K, you have to do better than "the MSM can't be trusted."
The Atlantic's Clive Crook's take is quite illuminating. He's not willing to abandon his belief in AGW, but is running out of reasons that justify his continued faith.
Without reliable data, the case for drastic public policy changes to combat global warming evaporates. Unless you're guzzling the AGW Kool-aid.
MSM Trust
Heh. You misunderstand. I wasn't trying to debunk the entirety of Dr. Zaius post based on a single hyperlink. I was simply pointing out the humorous irony of the particular word he chose ("fact") for a link to a MSM source. To spell it out for you, the implication is that the Telegraph is a source of facts. While I haven't heard the Telegraph bashed around here as much as, for example, the NY Times, I'm guessing that most contributors on this site don't take everything they print at face value.
Re: MSM trust
"I'm guessing that most contributors on this site don't take everything they print at face value."
That is correct. That is slightly different from saying "I thought we distrusted the MSM here?" That is also correct, with the obvious caveats that several of us -- Zaius, Joel and, of course, yours truly -- have worked in the mainstream media and continue to publish there often. What you will not find is the juvenile triumphalism and schadenfreude one tends to encounter at other blogs when it comes to traditional media's myriad failures.
Bottom line: Merely citing mainstream sources such as the New York Times or the Telegraph is hardly a departure from form. But, seriously, you knew that, right? You were just rattling Zaius's cage. I know, I know... I do it all the time.
RE: Two things
You might be making noise near my cage, but I'm hardly rattled. Seriously, this is your lead-off argument? That because I tend to criticize the MSM around here, I'm a hypocrite (or its ironic, or something) because I cited the Telegraph? Since the British press covered this story extensively and for days before the American MSM even got a whiff of it, I consider that rather appropriate. I also have 12 links in my first two graphs to coverage at both MSM outlets, as well as new media outlets. As Ben would attest, that's a lot for my lazy ass.
You must have missed, though, that the citation that prompted my post in the first place was from the Toronto Sun, and it is raw fact — excerpts of original-source email messages.
You seem to be missing the point, and as a computer geek yourself, you should know better. As has been pointed out to people smarter on such things than I am (too lazy to find a link, but its out there), one of the really fraudulent aspects of this hoax is how the programs to crunch the raw data was either so poorly designed to be useless, or it was written to ensure the outcomes the Global Warmists wanted. It's probably a little of both.
Besides, as Rick pointed out, we can't even check their data anymore, because they destroyed it. When the Global Warmists — who want to completely reorder society and run our lives (carbon credit cards are being proposed in Britain), and cost the world economy untold trillions — they'd need to do a whole lot better than this. It's incredibly damning to say "the dog ate my data," but don't worry, you can trust us — especially in light of what Climategate has revealed: A conspiracy to rig the "peer review" system and blackball anyone who dares to question their conclusions.
That's not science. That's politics — and fraud.
Sullivan
Andrew Sullivan points out the data was not, in fact, destroyed.
RE: Sullivan
Not to nitpick, but Sullivan does not have a lot of credibility. For instance, he still believes — despite all evidence — that Trig Palin is not the former veep candidate's son.
For the record ...
I'll take CRU's word for it when it comes to its own data — especially since no correction or clarification of this simple, declarative sentence has been found. So perhaps Sully is referring to the "value-added data" ... which is worthless for a proper scientific examination.
Fact is, the CRU has for years kept its raw data secret, and then revealed that it tossed the original magnetic tapes and papers when it moved offices (a dubious claim of a mistake, if I've ever heard one). The scientific method requires that you "show your work" by releasing your raw data to your "peers" so your hypothesis can be tested. The leading climate research facility in the world — the one who's findings are the basis for sweeping policy decisions at both UN and in the United States (EPA and Congress) — has refused to do so. And, once caught, says the dog ate my data.
In contrast, scientists who debunk the global warming alarmists, reveal their data to the world and defend their conclusions to all comers.
The question remains: If the AGW theory is so solid, why all the secrecy? Why all the virulent denunciations of dissent? Perhaps money has something to do with it.
Re: Re: Sullivan
For what it's worth -- possibly not much -- Sullivan's been pretty clear in saying that he wants the questions resolved with easily available evidence, not that he endorses the Trig conspiracy theory. Given his zealousness in pursuing that question, it might be a distinction without difference, but if you're going to ad hominem a person's credibility on "nitpicky" grounds you might want to get those ducks in a row. Or be nitpicked. ; )
Lost Data
Goddammit! I can't help myself.
I took the Zaius' post (and the other articles I've read) here about "data being destroyed" to mean that the scientists at UEA deliberately destroyed the data to cover-up the fact that it did not conform to their theory. Perhaps that wasn't the intent of the authors, but re-reading of the TimesOnline piece and Zaius' post here ("a dubious claim of a mistake, if I've ever heard one") make me think that it was their intent. But from what I've been able to glean for the various sources linked to in this thread, they discarded the raw data for space concerns back in the 1980s. I'm not sure about academia, but this type of thing happens in business all the time. It's only recently that disk space has become cheap enough to warrant keeping everything in perpetuity. Once you hit the 7-year IRS time limit, into the shredder it goes. Additionally, the raw data is only gone from UEA's environs. The original source material is still out there, for anyone to recompile, so it's not lost after all.
There appears to be a lot of, well misinformation might not be the best word, on this story. Might we be jumping to conclusions too quickly? I agree that any and all scientific work should be transparent, with data and methodologies published alongside results so that others can replicate the results (or dispute the conclusions). But do all climate scientists adhere to the same processes that UEA uses, or are they the outlier? And what makes them the "world leader" (I forget which link used that term) in climate research?
Regarding the "money has something to do with it": I like how the author of that piece implies that CRU's grants of $2.7 million per year are MORE than ExxonMobil's $7 million per year grants to the other side. And then he goes on to throw around all sorts of number on a totally different scale (i.e. the expenditures of governments and continents) that are influenced by so many other things as to be almost completely irrelevant. I mean, comparing spending (read: tax incentives) on ethanol to funding climate research isn't even comparing apples and oranges. It's more like apples and baseballs.
RE: RE: Two Things
No. It's not a counter-argument to your post. As I said before, I just found this particular choice of which word to get the link amusingly ironic. It gave me a chuckle, so I thought I'd share it with the rest of you. I figured the likes of Wry Mouth might share the chuckle. You guys are too sensitive. This is the intertubes.
And as I also said before, I'm going to refrain from getting too engaged in this debate, mostly for time constraint reasons. I don't have the time to give the topic the attention it deserves; there are too many questions I would need to research such as:
This is a very interesting story, and I would like to learn more about it and discuss it. But it is December now and I there is a lot of crap I have to do if I want my review to go well, so I have to make sacrifices.
[I don't expect answers to the above questions. I am merely listing things that I would need to know to fully evaluate the situation.]
MSM
I got a chuckle out of it, anyway. "The MSM is commie propaganda! Except when it agrees with me!"
Maybe the reason I don't consider myself a conservative is simply that my cherry-picker is broken.
More Than Just Sullivan
Sullivan may not have a lot of credibility, but he links to an article and comment thread which explains in a lot of detail, with sources and everything. So I'm not just taking him at his word.
No; Really-- 100% Bad! All the Time! Everywhere!
People get lost, IMO. Okay, so we have some missing (a la Nixonian dialogue) patches of data, and "models" that seem to be constructed, modified and patched to produce a foregone conclusion, rather than more "neutral" results -- I stand with those who aren't surprised by this revelation because the interpretations gave away the game before the game was revealed as rigged. Global Warming -- errr -- Climate Change has been flogged as the EOTWAWKI on all fronts, with zero possible, positive outcomes.
To paraphrase Mr. Capote, "that's not science; that's typing."
One (me) wonders if all the kerfuffle over the now-possibly-revealed shenanigans comes too late to stop the "WE HAVE TO ACT NOW" juggernaut that wishes to impose unelected, unaccountable world governance upon the economy.
I'd be happy if it hasn't come to late, but I fear it has.
.
"Don't confuse political savvy with competence or principles." -- RobbL, 2009
Models
That's a great point, Wry Mouth. For more than two decades, there was a divide among climatologists between the empiricists (who reviewed the temperature readings) and the modelers (who, obviously, plugged data into models and used the results to predict future patterns).
There was a lot of distrust, primarily from the empiricist side. (I've discussed this with several at length.) Their big criticism was that they checked the temperature data and couldn't see a big jump in temperatures during a time that CO2 emissions were surging. Moreover, they noted that the models could not be reverse-engineered. In other words, if you plugged current data into the models and looked back in time, the temperature records for, say, 1980, were nowhere near the actual readings.
If the models couldn't accurately reflect the past -- which we can easily enough check -- how reliable would they be as predictors of the future?
Well, now we have a pretty good idea that the code may have been modified to make sure that the models spit out the results that the researchers wanted. That's not science. And it has no business informing policy.
Harming public confidence in all science
Ron Bailey's right on this. Climaquiddick only emboldens people who don't trust fully science or the scientific method to begin with. Read the whole thing.
The EU
cannot survive the collapse of global warming crisis. Keep an eye out for more ludicrous behavior from that arena.
Putting it in perspective
George Monbiot wrote today in the Guardian:
Tip o' the Hat: Thom Yorke
Now, I'm not sure I agree with Monbiot that "[t]he evidence for manmade global warming remains as strong as the evidence linking smoking to lung cancer or HIV to AIDS", but I do think that those who don't agree with the AGW theory are making a mountain out of a molehill. Because there are a handful of bad scientists, and one model and set of extrapolated data with serious questions, they want us to throw out the data and conclusions of every scientist studying the issue (except their own, of course). It would be as if we discovered that some of the physicists at the LHC were doing bad science, and concluded that we should disregard the entire Theory of Quantum Mechanics.
Seconded
I never believed in any of that subatomic nonsense anyway.
Say, can someone explain how my USB flash drive works?
RE Belief
You reminded me of one of my favorite xkcd comics. Thanks. :)
Putting GW in Perspective
"It would be as if we discovered that some of the physicists at the LHC were doing bad science, and concluded that we should disregard the entire Theory of Quantum Mechanics."
I'm not going to break this analogy; it serves its purpose.
I will again assert that the *main* signature that the GW debate is fixed is not the data, nor the analysis thereof, but in the perfectly one-sided nature of the projections. I am actually assuming rigging, which is unusual for me as I am a notorious fence-straddler and number-cruncher.
Whether or not the "hole in the dike" represented by the Climate Research Unit's indiscretions is patchable, or fatal to the superstructure, probably depends upon whether or not there are similar revelations at other institutions.
Scientific theories (see evolution, e.g.) are strengthened by cross-disciplinary redundancies.
I patiently await the answer to my query: what are 10 possible benefits of climate change?
Well. I will patiently await, until governments start doing truly monumentally crazy over-reactive steps, such as declaring CO2 a pollutant, or curbing technological and economic progress, dooming millions to poverty in the interests of saving some potential future population. That'd be... nuts. At that point, I would have to stop waiting patiently, and start screaming something from the rooftops.
CF. Professor Fate in "The Great Race" on the melting iceberg, told to remain calm: "Okay... Until the water reaches my upper lip; and then I'm gonna tell somebody!"
Benefits of Climate Change
Plants need carbon dioxide. They fix the carbon into chains of carbohydrates, which animals need to eat to survive, and release the oxygen, which again animals need to survive. More carbon dioxide in the atmosphere means more (and more vigorous) plants. Alas, research shows one major beneficiary of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is poison ivy.
But I've read some stabs -- no actual research-- in the direction of, less carbon dioxide will lead to smaller harvests of food crops, increasing hunger across the world. Not sure if it's true or even likely, myself, but it's something to consider.
Benefits of GW
1) The Northwest Passage is open for business, cutting 4500 miles off the Suez Canal route.
2) "The results imply that a 2.5deg. Celsius warming would lower deaths in the United States by about 40,000 per year."
3) "Workers today would be willing to give up between $30 billion and $100 billion annually in wages for a 2.5deg.C increase in temperatures." (from the same Stanford paper as #2.)
4) "Warmer temperatures would also mean less energy use to heat homes and buildings, helping to conserve energy."
5) Less traffic accidents due to snow/ice. (Ibid.)
6) Longer growing seasons will yield more crops. (Ibid.)
7) Less deforestation for heating fuel
8) Avert the next Ice Age (no, seriously)
So, 8/10. Do I get a 'B', or are you grading on a curve?
One More
You left out one benefit: My house becomes beachfront property.
Hooray for Dialogue!
Okay, #5 is really not globally impactful, and #3 is made up frou-frou. #8 is probably an extrapolation too tenuous to be engaged now.
Q: Is #2 a summary of #5, #6? Or addition to?
And Now:
Does #1 provide significant economic/strategic impact for nations looking to avoid the Suez bottleneck?
Is #2 a significant savings? How does 40k deaths saved this year project forward, say, 20 years?
#4, #7: Are they part of the "pendulum swinging back" phenomenon, re: energy usage? What are the savings? Are they significant? Is the difference b/t energy savings given a rise in temps significantly different from spending trillions to save energy and avoid rising temps, which would save energy on their own?
#6 -- this is to be avoided? why?
Are the (possible/probable) deleterious effects of predicted GW enough to outweigh (possible/probable) projected beneficial effects of GW?
What is the desired outcome of any GLOBAL legislation? What is the defined "good" endpoint, and who is to do the defining? Are we, like Mr. Stalin, going to sacrifice a few tens of millions in the interest of the greater good? and how will those tens of millions feel about their sacrifice? Do we preserve as many people as possible -- because I can tell you right now, if we decide that that is the "greater good," some animals and plants are going to go extinct.
This question is an ugly, many-headed Hydra mated with a Gorgon and anyone who proposes a quick fix for a few trillion dollars is selling something, and I suspect they will profit by it.
SInce no one is asking me for input, my own question is: do I jump on the bandwagon and get my cut of the trillions of dollars? Or do I stand truer to my own principles, and champion the cause of reasoned and sober and measured response?
[heh. I accidentally typed 'GFW' and almost kept it in, because I liked it.]