Obama's economic illiteracy

Economic illiteracy among the journalistic class is hardly new. Journalists were usually the people with higher verbal than math scores on the SAT. (I speak from personal experience.)

Economic illiteracy among the political class is fairly widespread, too. I'd wager that four out of five congressmen of either political party, if asked, couldn't explain the law of supply and demand and would probably vote against it if they could.

But economic illiteracy among presidents is a much more consequential affliction.

The shape and scope of Barack Obama's economic illiteracy becomes more manifest with each passing day. Three examples from just the past week suggest the president and his team of economic advisers know little about the big plans they wish to foist upon the American public.

Obama visited Wall Street on Monday to mark the anniversary of Lehman Brothers' collapse with plans to enact sweeping new regulations over U.S. financial services.

"Under the Treasury reform blueprint," write the Wall Street Journal's editors today, "any financial company, whether a regulated bank or not, could be rescued or seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation if regulators believe it poses a systemic risk."

Much hinges on the term "systemic risk," but the president didn't elaborate much about that on Monday. Instead he hauled out a few hoary clichés from last Winter.

"We will not go back to the days of reckless behavior and unchecked excess that was at the heart of this crisis, where too many were motivated only by the appetite for quick kills and bloated bonuses," Obama said. "Those on Wall Street cannot resume taking risks without regard for consequences, and expect that next time, American taxpayers will be there to break their fall."

Obama's visit to Wall Street follows an announcement Friday that the United States would impose a 35 percent tariff hike on Chinese-made tires. Now, the tariff is a complicated issue. Phil Levy attempts to explain the nuances at Foreign Policy's Shadow Government blog. The bottom line, however, is that the tire tariff was a choice, not a necessity -- an act of protectionism, not of free trade.

Yet here's what President Obama had to say about the tire tariff on Monday: "Enforcing trade agreements is part and parcel of maintaining an open and free trading system."

That's true -- when a trading partner breaks an agreement, you enforce the rules. And the Chinese have not been good partners when it comes to intellectual property, for example. But the tire tariffs have more to do with appeasing unions and other special interests in the United States, not punishing Chinese malefactors abroad. Naturally, China filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization.

Now, I might feel less anxious about Obama's high-stakes gambits with China and other prominent trading partners -- including Japan and Mexico -- if he didn't say things that would make a freshman econ major blush.

In the middle of his address to Congress last week, Obama dropped this little stink bomb:

I've insisted that like any private insurance company, the public insurance option would have to be self-sufficient and rely on the premiums it collects. But by avoiding some of the overhead that gets eaten up at private companies by profits and excessive administrative costs and executive salaries, it could provide a good deal for consumers, and would also keep pressure on private insurers to keep their policies affordable and treat their customers better, the same way public colleges and universities provide additional choice and competition to students without in any way inhibiting a vibrant system of private colleges and universities.

(Emphasis added.)

Profits aren't overhead and overhead isn't profits. Profits are what you're left with after overhead, salaries, benefits and taxes are paid. That's elementary economics -- so basic even a freelance journalist knows it.

(There are actually two stinkers in that passage. Perry Glanzner noticed and discusses the second one.)

Possible objections: That's just one gaffe! Bush made a million of them and gave us TARP and committed a million other sins, shredded the Bill of Rights, and all the rest of it. Yes, yes, that's fine. But Obama is president right now and it's his economy to ruin by virtue of his words and deed.

In fact, Obama's public displays of economic ignorance are extensive, if not particularly well documented. And they aren't always gaffes. Sometimes, Obama will speak in vague platitudes that suggest maybe he's just trying to B.S. his way through a economic policy discussion or making stuff up. From little slips like "profit and earning ratios" to howlers such as comparing the stock market to a "tracking poll," it's clear that the president is simply not in his element when it comes to questions of finance and economics.

Take a look at the transcript of the president's July 22 press conference. In his opening remarks, he says, "we passed a Recovery Act that has already saved jobs and created new ones." The administration predicted the $787 stimulus -- most of which has not been spent, by the way -- would hold unemployment at 8 percent. The official unemployment rate in August was 9.7 percent.

The point is, making economic predictions is tricky and making economic policies is trickier still. Having a president who doesn't know much about economics in the Oval Office wouldn't be so alarming if he had advisers who could check his worst impulses and correct his errors and temper his anti-market instincts. But instead Obama's surrounded by people, with the exceptions of Ben Bernanke and possibly Tim Geithner, who think and act just like him.

It's worth noting that the president's Wall Street audience gave him a standing ovation at the conclusion of his remarks Monday morning. Praise, like currency, can be easily inflated. Obama's job is to do no harm to the economy. So far his efforts, while expensive, have been of little help.

But the president can only get by on wit and ridiculous federal expansion for so long. For while those stockbrokers were cheering the president, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 23 points on sluggish trading. The market, it seems, is immune to the president's charms.

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Obama's gaffe

I was listening with half an ear while doing other things, but I still couldn't avoid rolling my eyes at times.

But an important point to make is that Obama's speech to Wall Street has been worked on for weeks, probably months. It was revised and revised and revised and revised ... then fed into the teleprompter. Unless Obama misread his teleprompter, that howler slipped past layers and of quality checks — which reveals either a shocking lack of attention to detail in the President's speech shop, or a shocking lack of basic economic knowledge at all levels of the administration.

But that statement stood out to me for another reason (I have to confess that I missed it when listening to the speech): Obama is admitting that he's rigging the system, but somehow thinks this will be a good thing for the markets.

Let's say Obama's government-run system eliminates the "overhead" problems of private insurance companies (good luck with that), avoids "excessive administrative costs" (HA!) and pays below-market salaries to ObamaCare executives (Fannie and Freddie execs were paid millions in bonuses, too). Let's say Obama can will all these things to happen. How is that in any way fair to the private insurance companies? ObamaCare, heavily subsidized by the taxpayer and not worried about profits, would unnaturally distort the market by undercutting the prices of private plans. That wouldn't "keep pressure on private insurers to keep their policies affordable," it would put them out of business.

You don't think this is a problem if you consider the word "profits" a dirty word — which seems to be the case in the Obama administration.

Don't Cross This Line, or We'll Draw Another Line, I Swear

"Those on Wall Street cannot resume taking risks without regard for consequences, and expect that next time, American taxpayers will be there to break their fall."

That is straight out of the UN policy of strongly-worded warnings: "if you do that again, well -- we'll warn you again!"

But who is speaking for those of us taxpayers who didn't expect we would be there LAST time to break their fall?!

Anyone? Bueller?

RE: Crossing lines

"Those on Wall Street cannot resume taking risks without regard for consequences, and expect that next time, American taxpayers will be there to break their fall."

That was the argument opponents of TARP and bailout fever have been making: When government puts taxpayers on the hook for the risks of private companies, it creates an incentive for more risk, not less. Creative destruction is not bad, but is the cleansing rain of the free market — as essential as water is to plants. Insulate the market from creative destruction and you get less destruction, but also the same mistakes later on.

The conceit of Obama's Wall Street speech was that he and government bureaucrats can "manage" our economy better than free markets. Government cannot, as the failure of every socialist economy has proved. Just because Obama believes he has the intellectual firepower to micromanage financial markets doesn't mean he can.

Not Even if Mr. Obama Uses

The "Think" Method, popularized by Prof. Harold Hill? It worked pretty good in the final curtain-ringing scene of The Music Man...

It's even worse

As you referenced in the link to Glanzner, Obama sees shining examples of how government and the private sector can compete side-by-side competition in public universities and the Post Office -- both of which exist only because of a) hefty tax subsidies or b) monopoly protection for basic delivery.

When he provided each example, it too all of about five seconds for anyone with a basic understanding of economics to see the fallacy in those comparisons.

A third one, from last week:

"And that's why under my plan, individuals will be required to carry basic health insurance -- just as most states require you to carry auto insurance."

One reason this analogy doesn't follow is that you don't have to drive. You have to breathe. And passengers don't have to carry auto insurance, but everyone under the president's plan would face a mandate to carry medical insurance.

It's a bit scary that someone who either can't handle such elementary information or deliberately obfuscates it wields such power.

RE: It's even worse

Rick says:

"And that's why under my plan, individuals will be required to carry basic health insurance -- just as most states require you to carry auto insurance."

One reason this analogy doesn't follow is that you don't have to drive. You have to breathe. And passengers don't have to carry auto insurance, but everyone under the president's plan would face a mandate to carry medical insurance.

Here's another reason why that analogy doesn't fly: One buys auto insurance to protect against an accident that does serious damage to either your car, another car, or both. One does not buy auto insurance to cover putting gas in the tank, get oil changes, replace the tires, etc. (Though there is a growing market for "repair insurance," and that's a free-market invention and a good thing.)

Yet the American health insurance industry — rigged by government tax policies that encouraged employer-based benefit packages in the late '40s, early '50s — covers the health care equivalent of oil changes and tire replacements by covering doctor visits, physicals, and other routine stuff. That regime insulates most Americans from the true costs of health care, and has instituted huge administrative inefficiencies into the system.

It's not an accident that many people who are independent contractors and businessmen (such as myself) have a high-deductible plan to cover a health catastrophe, and a Health Savings Account to pay for the routine maintenance of their bodies. If Congress put such individually purchased plans on the same tax footing as employer-based plans (individuals, unlike businesses cannot deduct the cost of their health plans), and allowed interstate competition in health insurance, that would go a long way to fixing the problems that even Obama admits afflicts only 10 percent of the U.S. population.

But Obama is not interested in fixing the problem. He's interested in taking over health care delivery in the United States for political reasons.

Profits and Overhead

First, at Wry Mouth, I agree with you. I'm sure the next time Goldman Sachs takes one risk too many (and they will eventually), their alumni in government will happily bail them out at our expense.

Regarding the Obama "gaffe," I have a quick question. I missed both the speech to Congress and Wall Street. Ben says it was mentioned in the Congressional speech, but Zaius says Wall Street. Was it mentioned in both?

As someone with an Economics degree, I can say that this is indeed an Introduction to Microeconomics definition that even the poorest students should know (I present myself as Exhibit A). That said, this concept is lost on 90-95% of the general population (or more). Public speakers, and politicians in particular, have to dumb-down their speeches so as to be understood by the audience. This is (at least one reason) why Obama nor anyone else has gone into the Loss Ratios and Expense Ratios of various insurance companies. While those two numbers can give you a general (but fairly insightful) view of the economic/business health of the company, the nuances would be lost on everyone outside the industry (and many inside it as well I fear). Basically, Obama and/or his speech writer(s) are glossing over a fairly insignificant distinction in order to make the speech flow better, and get the general point across in a more accessible manner. This is really picking at straws if you are holding this up as an example of Obama's economic ineptitude (disclaimer: I haven't clicked on the links yet to see other examples of his lack of knowledge).

Also, the two other examples he gives (admin expense and executive salaries) are indeed overhead.

Something just occurred to me that makes me think an argument can be made for profit being considered overhead. Classic Theory of the Firm says that optimal output is the point where Marginal Cost = Marginal Revenue. This bothered me for a long time, until a professor explained that included in the calculation of Cost is the cost of not investing your capital in another venture. In other words, if you can get an X% return by investing your capital in Treasury Bonds (or something), then you must get at least an X% profit from you business to "break even." In that sense, some profit can be seen as overhead - it is a cost you must incur to do business. Now to be my own Devil's Advocate, Obama was probably talking about more than just this "opportunity cost" profit.

RE: Profits and Overhead

That was my mistake. Ben was citing the address to Congress, and I'd just finished listening to his address on Wall Street and typed it out by mistake. But my point still stands: The address to Congress was probably worked on even more extensively than his speech on Wall Street today.

Profit

Khabalox, you make some good points. Part of the problem is that there are different definitions for "economic profit" and "accounting profit." You can go read Wikipedia for details on those differences, but economic profit is indeed the important thing to talk about here.

Probably one of the most important misconceptions about economics is about profit. The key function of profit is the role in plays in communicating. One of the really remarkable things about a society that most people never think about is all the pieces that go into the simplest things. I think it was Friedman who used the pencil as an example--all the steps and effort that goes into getting graphite, wood, metal, whatever erasers are made of, paint, all to the same place, at a factory with electricity and plumbing and machines to make pencils. Then all the work that goes into packaging and distribution. What makes all these processes come together is people taking pieces of the activity and doing them profitably. It's the profit that lets them know that they are doing the right thing, in the right amount. If there's everything to make pencils but graphite, someone will have an opportunity for profit by supplying it. And if there's too many pencils in Minnesota and not enough in Phoenix, someone missed out on a profit opportunity, and someone else is going to fix it.

So back to the healthcare debate: as you said, the definition of profit includes looking at what else you could be doing that would be more profitable. You see this in technology all the time--companies still make floppy disks, but they put a lot more effort into making other things. Government intervention in any activity is a double edged sword: first, it distort profit signals (say, making it more profitable to use corn syrup than sugar because of tariffs) or taking away the profit in doing an activity so people stop doing it. The other edge of the sword is that when government takes on an activity, they don't operate with those profit signals. So if the government took on making pencils, there might not be enough graphite, and there almost certainly would be too many pencils in one town and not enough in another. Allowing profit signals to work is what allows these enormously complex activities to occur.

And trust me: providing healthcare is a lot more complex than making pencils.

Re: Quick question and straws...

Regarding the Obama "gaffe," I have a quick question. I missed both the speech to Congress and Wall Street. Ben says it was mentioned in the Congressional speech, but Zaius says Wall Street. Was it mentioned in both?

The passage I quoted (with a link included ) was from the health care speech to Congress.

Here is a link to the text of the president's Wall Street speech today. I find no mention of the overhead and profits remark in it.

This is really picking at straws if you are holding this up as an example of Obama's economic ineptitude...

I'm aware of that, which is why I took pains to note it as a particularly timely example of a more widespread pattern. I'm often reluctant to wade into economic topics because it is simply not an area of expertise. I know just enough to be dangerous. However, I think this president has been careless with his language when it comes to economic subjects. In that regard, perhaps, the president and I have something in common.

RE: Timely example of widespread pattern.

I'll admit that I don't pay particularly close attention to politics in general, and only slightly more to the President in particular, but I don't see a pattern of lack of basic econ knowledge. So I've now gone back and clicked some of the hyperlinks (the 'gaffes' link in the 17th paragraph has an extra 'h' at the beginning btw), and I don't see the "mounting evidence" that some of the bloggers are bemoaning. The most credible ones I've seen are:

Comparing health insurance to car insurance. This is only a flawed analogy, and aren't all analogies flawed (otherwise they would be called the-exact-same-thing, right?) I don't see how it exemplifies Obama's lack of economic knowledge.

Comparing the public option to public higher education. This is perhaps the best example, and the details he omits deserves to be pointed out. The change in the ratio of public:private students and dollars spent on education (and countless other metrics) over time should be laid out. It's clear that public universities have taken an ever increasing market share away from private universities. What's not clear however, but what is being assumed by the conservatives making this point, is that 1) this is a bad thing and 2) this is only due to government subsidies (as oppsoed to failures of management. But that is really a discussion for another time.

"Dow is like a tracking poll" ere is the complete quote for reference.
"[The stock market] is sort of like a tracking poll in politics. You know, it bobs up and down day to day. And if you spend all your time worrying about that, then you're probably going to get the long-term strategy wrong."

This is another analogy, and probably a poor one from a political perspective. But is it bad from an technical perspective? What is a tracking poll? It is a measure of a populations (the pollees) opinion on a particular subject, e.g. "Is the President doing a good job?" What is the DJIA? It is a compliation of stock prices. And what are stock prices? They are a measure of a populations (investors) opinion on a particular subject (is GM a economically sound business?). The key point is that a stock price on any given day is reflective not of the actual health of a company, but rather what investors THINK the health of the company is. Anyone who has read even a little history about stock markets knows that the prices assigned to stocks are not always rational. Seth Klarmen, author of "Margin of Safety, Risk Averse Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor" makes this point quite well in the opening chapter of his book. (Good luck finding it though, as it goes on eBay for north of $1000).

The second and third sentences are absolutely true. Any sensible investor knows that the day to day movement of the market is mostly noise. To get a better idea of what is going on, you have to look at longer trends.

All in all, the uproar about this "tracking poll" comment only shows that those who disagree with it seem to have an unyielding faith in the rationality of the market and it's individual participants. They seem to think that prices reflect reality, rather than investors perception of reality. We have two clear examples of how this is not the case in the past decade, but I guess political commentators are only too happy to suffer collective amnesia if it helps them make their point.

Other "gaffes" linked to:
From Fred Barnes :
"only government has the resources to jolt our economy back into life" - if anything, this is a question of theoretical debate (that is, debate of economic theory).

"Tax on $1 mill plus to pay for health care" The point being made is that taxing is the wrong thing do during a recession. Yes, in general, but if you spend more than you tax (which certainly no one would acuse Obama of NOT doing), then you're net economic activity will go up.

(The other economic "failures" Barnes cites are not examples of Obama's lack of knowledge, but rather of differing opinions on how to apply fiscal policy.)

The Tire Tariff: I haven't read too much about this yet, but it sounds like a shot over the bow. If China is (unfairly) subsidizing tire manufacturers, then perhaps something has to be done. But I predict this will be largely forgotten 6 months from now, and will spiral into a trade war as some seem to fear.

So what are the other economic gaffes that I'm missing? So far Obama seems to be doing pretty good for some who went to Harvard Law instead of Wharton.

Just curious

What "something" might need to be done if China is subsidizing it's carmakers? Can you cite an instance where economic theory would justify a tariff?

"Something" to do about China

Possibilities include the tariff that was instituted, filing a complaint with the WTO (for what that's worth), giving a sharply worded speech to the UN or an economic/trade forum. If a country wants to engage in economic/trade saber rattling, there are a lot of ways to go about doing it.

I'm not sure what your standard is for "justification." Tariffs are inherently political, in that they affect the relations between two political entities, so there will never be a purely economic justification for a tariff. Perhaps one could make the argument that there is an economic reason to protect a certain domestic industry, but I don't think you can have that debate with out bringing politics and other (e.g. environmental) issues into it.

The Friedmanite would argue that there should be no barriers to trade. This may well lead to the most efficient production of products, but that calculation invariably leaves out a host of intangible costs such as, for example, destruction or damage to public resources (e.g. air, oceans, airwaves, etc.). See Tragedy of the Commons.

"[T]here will never be a purely economic justification

... for a tariff."

Your words, not mine. So would the call for tariffs against Chinese-made tires not be a gaffe? Or a show of illiteracy?

Not trying to pull a gotcha, but just trying to understand the point of all the parsing.

Did he say there was a

Did he say there was a purely economic justification? If so then I would guess that he is at worst being a politician and trying to deflect potential criticism that he did it (partly) for political reason (eg to score points with trhe union). Doesnt strike me as evidence of lack of knowledge.

Edit:
I didn't have time last night for a full response because I was grilling dinner and posting from my Blackberry, so let me fill in and clarify a few things.

By my original statement ("no pure economic justification") I meant that in my opinion a tariff always involves a political element by definition (i.e. it involves two countries). If you take a universal economic view (looking at the world economy), then you can't justify a tariff simply with economic theory. However, if you are only concerned with one nation's economy, then you probably could. Granted, in this day and age, the interconnectedness of economies makes the latter very difficult.

The only comments Obama made on the tariff that were quoted in the Bloomberg article Ben linked to were:

“We’re not going to see a trade war,” “There are some tensions around this, no doubt about it. But my message is very simple: We have rules on the books.”

Elsewhere in the article various experts weighed in on both sides of the argument (that this will spiral into a trade war or not). I happen to agree with Obama that this will not cause a full blown trade war. There will likely be some more saber-rattling (like the complaint China filed with the WTO), but in the grand scheme of things, this is a non-story. It certainly isn't evidence of Obama's economic illiteracy.

I will repeat what I said. I think the people pushing this talking point are grasping at straws. I haven't seen any solid example of Obama making an economic gaffe, or illustrating a basic lack of understanding of economics.

Re: Grasping redux

I haven't had a chance to reply at length, and I'm not sure I have time to reply now. I would simply restate the point of the post in a slightly different way and then return later (Tonight? Tomorrow? I've got about five deadlines looming...) to flesh it out.

I think Obama and his economic team have operated from shaky premises and a temperamental distrust and dislike of free market solutions. For example, Obama insisted -- following on the heels of Bush, I'll grant you -- that only the stimulus package the Congress passed hastily in February would spur growth and employment. It didn't and it hasn't. His arguments for cost savings and competition in health care reform have rested in part on the inapt examples of the U.S. Postal Service and subsidized higher education. When he talks about economic subjects, he makes dumb mistakes (about what profits are, about what the stock market does and what the DJIA is) and recurs frequently to the clichés of Democratic populism: chiding greedy, reckless investors, denouncing excessive profits of certain disfavored industries, etc.

In sum, Obama has a lawyer's understanding of economics. He's not alone in that regard -- there are plenty of other lawyers who don't understand the economy, either (viz., The United States Senate). But he is the only president we have at the moment.

I've written many times in the past that the president can do little to help the economy but can do plenty to harm it. I think that claim is borne out so far by this administration's admittedly meager record nine months in.

More later, I hope...

Hear, hear

A couple other examples come to mind:

The cap-and-trade bill that passed the House. (And, for that matter, possibly any cap-and-trade proposal.)
Support for "green jobs."

There may be political reasons to back these proposals, but they certainly cannot be supported on economic grounds.

Stimulus IS working

"Obama insisted -- following on the heels of Bush, I'll grant you -- that only the stimulus package the Congress passed hastily in February would spur growth and employment. It didn't and it hasn't."

Haven't you heard? We are turning the corner on this recession. Here are some stats that say that the stimulus is helping.
DJIA - up 19.43% since Jan 28 when the stimulus was passed (or thereabouts).
Unemployment - up to 9.4%, but slowing in recent months (Source.)
Nonfarm labor productivity up 6.6% (largest increase since 2003). (Source.)
Real GDP decreased only 1% in Q2 vs. 6.4% in Q1 (Source.)
34 forecasters Surveyed by the Philadelphia Fed expect GDP to increase 2.4% in Q3. (Source.)
"August 21, 2009 - For the first time in five years, existing-home sales have increased for four months in a row, and the monthly increase is the largest in 23 years." (Source.)
The Consumer Confidence Index increased from 47.4 to 54.1 (Jul-Aug). The Expectations Index improved to 73.5 from 63.4. (Source.)

As for your repeated examples of the gaffes, I've already debunked just about all of them, so I won't bother doing so again. *shrug* I think a lot of it is difference of opinion. The Obama Administration certainly has a different opinion on fiscal matters (e.g. taxation, goverment spending, wealth redistribution) but that doesn't mean they are inept at economics.

Ben and Jim ... it's all yours!

I'll sit this one out.

Sitting out

eh.... I don't have much more anyway. I'll let them or someone have the last word; I doubt I'll have the energy or time to respond. :)

RE: Sitting out

I don't have the energy either. Let's move on. We've all made our points.

Great discussion!

Re: Sitting out

Leave it to silly paying work to interfere with blogging here. My apologies. I really need to address your points, some of which are sound and some of which, I think, are probably a matter of interpretation. I'll do so in a separate post, probably over the weekend.

All good things must come to an end

Sounds good. Productivity and home sales are the most debatable stats I think. I'm eager to see the final numbers for GDP for Q3. I know I feel a lot better about things than I did a year ago.

Of course, for every stat you could argue that it would have happened even without the stimulus, but let's not go there. :D

way to complicated

Obama is right because he said it. See Obama does not believe in the free market, or rather, he doesn't think that our markets are free.

Being a Marxist/Socialist, he sees the markets as run by people in power, I.e. wall street.

Therefore, he does not see any difference in a government controlled market, other than he can more easily redistribut wealth by doing it directly, instead of using the tax code.

Economic consensus (and its opposite)

Great post by Kenneth Anderson at the Volokh Conspiracy with a link to the most recent survey by the American Economics Association asking economists' views on a host of policies. Offered here without further comment.

great survey report

Simple - Easy to understand - Concise.

I don't know if this qualifies as a gaffe

But the obtuseness of it is remarkable. (Plus, the line about food stamps is downright laughable.)